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Real colonies will require means of being both self sustaining and financially viable. Both the moon and Mars will struggle in this regard. The moon may be more financially viable because it will be the cheapest to get their mined, processed and manufactured products into near Earth space. More likely there will be huge rotating space cities that the outside of which is used for storage and automated manufacturing. This will protect the people inside from space radiation. The moon will supply the minerals and initially the water. These space cities will be financially viable because they will be manufacturing space hardware and be centres of trade and exploration in the solar system. Without that financial viability, real and sustainable colonies won’t happen. Anything being traded around the solar system is not going to be financially viable if it has to keep going in and out of gravity wells. The moon has the lowest gravity so it will initially be the best place for mines that ship resources into space. It could have solar powered rail guns to shoot their products up to the space colonies.
Neither Mars nor the Moon or anywhere else in the solar system is at all suitable for major colonisation. Sure there will be research stations and probably mining colonies, but as places to live, both will likely involve living underground. There is no real possibility of creating any self sustaining ecosystems. Antarctica and the bottoms of our seas are cheap, safe and luxurious tropical paradises in comparison. In the 1950s and 60s people thought we would have cities under the sea by now. It hasn’t happened because colonies need to be financially viable.
Theoretically, humans could land anywhere we have spent spaceships to, but practically we can’t safely get any humans anywhere and back other than the Moon at present. The challenges of sending humans safely to other planets and returning them to Earth are vast, involving considerations of life support, radiation protection, propulsion, and landing technologies, among others. However, each successful robotic mission brings us one step closer to overcoming these hurdles, making the dream of human exploration of distant worlds more feasible with time.
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